So What's the Future Look Like???????

Yesterday I saw an old friend at the post office. She's had Arabians for a long long time. She used to show in WP and did very well. Her business has taken a big hit from the bad economy and she doesn't have much money for horses.

This caused me to think about what's out there. What does the future of horse ownership look like? Where to do we as amateurs fit in? What about our trainers? What will our shows look like?

I'm sorry to be negative but I see the economy having a negative impact on horse owners. The government is doing all the wrong things - spending like there's no tomorrow, printing money to cover the massive expansion of the national debt, the eventual tax increases. We could be in for stagflation - stagnant economic growth coupled with inflation.

If this is the future, how do we prepare for it? Get out of horses? No way. Also, we could also be looking at a completely different future.

Personally, I think amateurs and small breeders are the wave of the future.

What say you?

Dave

I agree, the times they are a-changin', and if this is "Change we can believe in", I'll pass, thank you. I think this is likely to slow breeding down at a time when the majority of horses in our breed are already in their mid to upper 20s. So us diehards are going to have to keep going, albeit at a smaller level, since we need at this point to think more in terms of replacement breeding than sales inventory breeding. The show committees have been saying for a number of years that entries are down - the costs of hauling and showing may bring it down further. So I wouldn't be surprised to see fewer shows. The future will definately be in the hands of the ammys and small breeders. I personally will be breeding all my older mares and stallions this year, for replacement daughters and sons. I haven't bred in several years due to taking care of elderly parents, so I have no Breakdansk or Ibn El Hilal sons, and I need them. Same with daughters from some of my old girls.

I don't necessarily see this as a really bad thing, though, Dave. If we are thoughtful and produce quality horses, we will be set and ready when things finally turn around. Which they will, eventually.

As for the rest of it - contact your senators and congressmen and tell them that you don't approve of this ridiculous nonsense that's currently going on. Many of them are up for re-election next year, and they don't want to lose their posh positions. This is not outside of our control, unless we just sit and complain without taking action. Complain - loudly - to your elected officials.

Dar

Hi,
I own a surviving tack shop.....surviving, because tack shops and feed stores have been going down in droves. Business was so good a couple of years ago that many of them made huge expansions in both physical size and inventories; expansions that are now dragging them down. We are smaller and more flexible and are making the changes needed to survive the down economy.

Several trailer sales have also closed shop. The big Sundowner dealership and service center (this place was huge) near Plain City is gone. People are keeping their old trailers or are buying used ones.

We have a tack trailer that we also haul to the shows in the area. There is quite a mix....large recognized shows for a variety of breeds, a couple of nationals, hunter shows, dressage shows, gaited shows, fairs, and the local fun circuit shows. From my experience, the really large recognized shows have dropped in entries, but not to the point that they are suffering terribly. They still seem to attract enough "disposable income" people to stay afloat. The small local fun circuit shows are thriving. The mid-sized to smaller recognized shows are suffering (across all breeds.) It is too bad that the trainers don't feel that it is worth while to load up their clients to haul to these. I am not sure why this is so, but there are clearly different groups that show up at the different shows. Again - I am not commenting on Arab shows only, it is happening across the board.

People generally choose something that would be considered their personal "feel good" luxury for themselves as a hobby. Horses are that luxury for many people. Most people are not willing to give them up, but are finding less costly ways to enjoy them. We are seeing at the store, an increase in people purchasing items to use for pleasure and trail riding. Our consignment section is seeing an increase in discarded show clothes. Another related attitude that is prevalent is that the people who did show on a larger scale are seeking quality animals to be their pleasure mounts. Why keep a "mystery" horse when a quality horse isn't anymore costly to feed, and if they should feel like going to a local show they won't be embarrased. These will be horses capable of more than one job.

From the breeders standpoint, I think that a little more emphasis will go to the using type of horse unless the halter type Arab, QH, App, etc. should suddenly find themselves trail-worthy. And in the same respect, the breeders that will thrive will be working to preserve older bloodlines. Those who only want to buy and keep one or two mares will be looking for good, proven, predictable and ultimately saleable, bloodlines. When only a couple of foals are coming in a season, they will not want to be wasting a breeding experimenting with "new" crosses aimed specifically for the show ring flavor of the day.

As far as preparing for a bad or worse future.....How many horses can you afford to keep if you should lose say, half your income? Or all of it? Are you at that level now? How do you dispose of any excess horses if that should happen? Are all of your horses in show barns and stalled 24/7? If you have to take some or all of them home, can you? Do you have any pasture? If you do, maybe now is the time to evaluate your pasture's quality and improve it as needed, so that it is productively useful if you have to turn your horses out or if you need to harvest it for hay. The same goes for your stabling - maybe now is the time to make those little repairs that could bite you later. Do you have a good local hay source or are you dependent on a feed store that has to truck hay in or may, or may not stay in business? If you can't bring horses home, what is available in your area for basic boarding? It is worth a lot of thought. Hopefully, things won't get worse, but a contingency plan won't cost you much if anything now and could be worth it's weight in gold in the future.

Please have a most blessed and happy Easter. Ellen

Dar and Ellen,

Great posts.

We're seeing much of the same in SoCal. My club has a good track record of successful community shows. We had one in November that was best so far. We're having one next month. The class A shows have been hit hard. People are changing their economic behavior. We'll have to wait and see if this will be a permanent change.

I'd like to see more emphasis on useable horses. Pleasure and trail riding is something we need more of. Frequently, I see people riding Arabs on the trail, really nice ones that are well behaved.

Regarding protests, there are lots of tea parties scheduled for tax day. I'm a CPA and I'm going. Check out www.the912project.com. There's a tab for tea parties.

Dave

I've got those "using" trail horses. They actually try to do a little of everything until they find their niche. My stallion is just now riding out with groups of horses. He will be 3 on April 17. He's under the stallions at stud, if anyone was curious about these types of stallions.

I breed for myself and growing my business. We're going where the $$ is: Racing and Working Western.

I have heard a lot about the tea parties....I am a little amused/amazed/puzzled by the pretty complete inattention that the people of goverment have given to them. Ate they hoping they will go away if they ignore them? I am waiting for tax day to see what kind of coverage/reaction all of the tea parties will get.